Why are 150k or 200k jobs considered good when there are 300k+ births a month?












5















It would seem that most people who are born will eventually enter the workforce. Maybe that entry is delayed due to college or enlistment or that very important backpacking trip through Europe, but it seems that most people born will eventually get hired somewhere.



So when you hear that the economy increased by fewer than 200k jobs, but over 300k people entered the labor pool, doesn't that really mean 100k more unemployed people? It doesn't seem like any figure smaller than 300k jobs is even breaking even against population growth. What am I missing here?










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  • 31





    People die. It's true.

    – user22277
    yesterday






  • 28





    I don't really understand how this question got so many upvotes when it is failing to take into account the obvious factor of the rate at which people leave the labor force. This is not a good question. At all.

    – John
    yesterday






  • 8





    @John The question entered HNQ and visitors can upvote but not downvote.

    – gerrit
    22 hours ago











  • Lots of people don't work... students, stay at home moms (and dads), retirees, the disabled, homeless, people on extended leave (just because they have the means to do so), military (I don't think that is in your jobs numbers), kids in their 20's and even 30's that live with their parents and don't want to work, etc.

    – Robert Hanson
    16 hours ago
















5















It would seem that most people who are born will eventually enter the workforce. Maybe that entry is delayed due to college or enlistment or that very important backpacking trip through Europe, but it seems that most people born will eventually get hired somewhere.



So when you hear that the economy increased by fewer than 200k jobs, but over 300k people entered the labor pool, doesn't that really mean 100k more unemployed people? It doesn't seem like any figure smaller than 300k jobs is even breaking even against population growth. What am I missing here?










share|improve this question




















  • 31





    People die. It's true.

    – user22277
    yesterday






  • 28





    I don't really understand how this question got so many upvotes when it is failing to take into account the obvious factor of the rate at which people leave the labor force. This is not a good question. At all.

    – John
    yesterday






  • 8





    @John The question entered HNQ and visitors can upvote but not downvote.

    – gerrit
    22 hours ago











  • Lots of people don't work... students, stay at home moms (and dads), retirees, the disabled, homeless, people on extended leave (just because they have the means to do so), military (I don't think that is in your jobs numbers), kids in their 20's and even 30's that live with their parents and don't want to work, etc.

    – Robert Hanson
    16 hours ago














5












5








5


0






It would seem that most people who are born will eventually enter the workforce. Maybe that entry is delayed due to college or enlistment or that very important backpacking trip through Europe, but it seems that most people born will eventually get hired somewhere.



So when you hear that the economy increased by fewer than 200k jobs, but over 300k people entered the labor pool, doesn't that really mean 100k more unemployed people? It doesn't seem like any figure smaller than 300k jobs is even breaking even against population growth. What am I missing here?










share|improve this question
















It would seem that most people who are born will eventually enter the workforce. Maybe that entry is delayed due to college or enlistment or that very important backpacking trip through Europe, but it seems that most people born will eventually get hired somewhere.



So when you hear that the economy increased by fewer than 200k jobs, but over 300k people entered the labor pool, doesn't that really mean 100k more unemployed people? It doesn't seem like any figure smaller than 300k jobs is even breaking even against population growth. What am I missing here?







united-states economy demographics






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edited 8 hours ago









JJJ

5,89522454




5,89522454










asked yesterday









corsiKacorsiKa

530616




530616








  • 31





    People die. It's true.

    – user22277
    yesterday






  • 28





    I don't really understand how this question got so many upvotes when it is failing to take into account the obvious factor of the rate at which people leave the labor force. This is not a good question. At all.

    – John
    yesterday






  • 8





    @John The question entered HNQ and visitors can upvote but not downvote.

    – gerrit
    22 hours ago











  • Lots of people don't work... students, stay at home moms (and dads), retirees, the disabled, homeless, people on extended leave (just because they have the means to do so), military (I don't think that is in your jobs numbers), kids in their 20's and even 30's that live with their parents and don't want to work, etc.

    – Robert Hanson
    16 hours ago














  • 31





    People die. It's true.

    – user22277
    yesterday






  • 28





    I don't really understand how this question got so many upvotes when it is failing to take into account the obvious factor of the rate at which people leave the labor force. This is not a good question. At all.

    – John
    yesterday






  • 8





    @John The question entered HNQ and visitors can upvote but not downvote.

    – gerrit
    22 hours ago











  • Lots of people don't work... students, stay at home moms (and dads), retirees, the disabled, homeless, people on extended leave (just because they have the means to do so), military (I don't think that is in your jobs numbers), kids in their 20's and even 30's that live with their parents and don't want to work, etc.

    – Robert Hanson
    16 hours ago








31




31





People die. It's true.

– user22277
yesterday





People die. It's true.

– user22277
yesterday




28




28





I don't really understand how this question got so many upvotes when it is failing to take into account the obvious factor of the rate at which people leave the labor force. This is not a good question. At all.

– John
yesterday





I don't really understand how this question got so many upvotes when it is failing to take into account the obvious factor of the rate at which people leave the labor force. This is not a good question. At all.

– John
yesterday




8




8





@John The question entered HNQ and visitors can upvote but not downvote.

– gerrit
22 hours ago





@John The question entered HNQ and visitors can upvote but not downvote.

– gerrit
22 hours ago













Lots of people don't work... students, stay at home moms (and dads), retirees, the disabled, homeless, people on extended leave (just because they have the means to do so), military (I don't think that is in your jobs numbers), kids in their 20's and even 30's that live with their parents and don't want to work, etc.

– Robert Hanson
16 hours ago





Lots of people don't work... students, stay at home moms (and dads), retirees, the disabled, homeless, people on extended leave (just because they have the means to do so), military (I don't think that is in your jobs numbers), kids in their 20's and even 30's that live with their parents and don't want to work, etc.

– Robert Hanson
16 hours ago










7 Answers
7






active

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65














The obvious answer is that people get older and (presumably, hopefully) retire from the workforce.



If your country's demographic is otherwise more or less stable, it means that by the time those 300,000 people age up to enter the work force, a similar number of people retire from the work force and hopefully live on their pension plan.






share|improve this answer



















  • 2





    +1, though we've also got an aging population. Figure 1 shows US population growth was largest ~1950 and 1965, which corresponds to folks between the ages of 55 and 70

    – Punintended
    yesterday






  • 43





    Or more analogously to the "300k births" number, there are also 230k deaths per month. So anything above about 70k new jobs per month is a surplus. (I know this is a vast oversimplification)

    – MooseBoys
    yesterday






  • 1





    See Business Insider that did the "calculus" to arrive at an answer of how many jobs need be created to maintain balanced population/jobs. Their answer 203,000 per month. [ businessinsider.com/… ]

    – BobE
    13 hours ago



















21














In addition to the other answers, it should be noted that jobs don't just exist independent of people. The only reason jobs exist is that people create the need for jobs, so more people means more jobs.






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New contributor




kloddant is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
















  • 3





    A small correction. People create the need for products and services, and that need creates jobs. There are times when society creates jobs merely because jobs are needed, but that is, at best, a temporary fix. Unless the work product is of value, ultimately the job is just a tranfer payment in disguise.

    – Walter Mitty
    19 hours ago



















12














"300k people entered the labor pool" and "300k+ births a month" are very different things.



You can get to 300k new people in labor pool, if you have 150k people reaching employment age, and 150k of previously long-term unemployed people (excluded from the labor pool by labor statistics bureau) started looking for a job (because they decided such with low unemployment, they have chance to get the job even if they could not get it before).



And to get to 150k people reaching employment age you need more that 150k births, 20 years earlier.



We have no idea how many jobs will be available 20 years from now for people born now. It could be singularity and robots will do all the work. Or climate collapse could start WW3.



And then there is immigration, legal and illegal.






share|improve this answer





















  • 1





    thanks for adding numbers: other answers miss that part.

    – aaaaaa
    3 hours ago



















4














In addition to other answers. (+1 to Kloddant).



Note newborns will only enter the labor market after 20 years or more. The economy is supposed to grow (even when the population is stable) a lot in that time frame, so by the time anybody born today ends college the new jobs increase ratios is supposed to be a lot higher than today.
Of course, no one can give us a real number of new jobs created for 2039. But we hope it will be more than 300k.






share|improve this answer





















  • 2





    yes, but with automation the economy (=GDP) can grow while jobs shrink at the same time.

    – Fizz
    yesterday











  • But the people entering the job market now correspond to births 20ish years ago, and he's assuming the birth rate was roughly comparable then.

    – Barmar
    yesterday











  • @Fizz There are lots of things to consider. Someone talked about immigration, for example, but that is peanuts compared to job migration (when you close a facility in Europe to reopen another in Asia). Analysts try to extrapolate all those graphs and that's why you cannot correlate today birth rate with today jobs increase rate. In fact, if jobs increase rate was as big as birth rate that can mean you really need immigrants and automation badly.

    – jean
    yesterday








  • 1





    That might happen even without automation; South Africa is an example economist.com/special-report/2010/06/03/jobless-growth

    – Fizz
    yesterday











  • Correction: we hope newborns will only enter the labour market after 20 years or more.

    – Sean
    2 hours ago



















2















"On average, 205,300 jobs need to be created every month just to keep up with population growth"




per Business Insider Aug 2016.



Their article appears to be an analysis of this issue, however I will leave it to the reader to debate the accuracy and/or validity of the conclusion. If the analysis was valid in 2016, I would think that it is equally valid 2.5 years later.






share|improve this answer































    -1














    Quick answer. Money is produced by private and corporate bank loans. With a fixed base money supply (because bond rates have been flat for 40 years now) this means debt can not be repaid because it amounts to more money then there exists. So there things allow this to continue, new loans but this grows the interest leading to the other two. Alternatively the loans can default, or the banks can essentially give money back.



    The give back is why we don't need 100% employment. Most middle class can live off investment and pensions. With enough principle it is trivial matter of funding.



    This is in contrast to prior where you got the give back from a know, standard source, gov bonds. Reliable, riskless, standard insertion of new currency. Today bond rates have been flat and non competitive. With growing world economy private and corporate banks use debt to create new money and give interest back through literally any way you can think of. Insanely well paying do nothing jobs, artificial investment growth, or sometimes not at all, bankruptcy.






    share|improve this answer








    New contributor




    marshal craft is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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      -1














      Other posters noted that you need to subtract the number of people who age out of the labor force from the number of people who reach the adulthood each year. In a thriving society, both numbers are substantially less then the number of births.



      In a thriving society, a large fraction of the working age population does not work for monetary pay. They have better things to do: Homemaking, raising children well, gardening, volunteer work.



      If a society manages to have 90 % of its working age men working, and 30 % of its working age women working, and does not have net immigration/emigration of working age adults, then the rate of creating net new jobs should average about 60 % of the rate of net new working age adults.






      share|improve this answer



















      • 1





        A society with an excess of births is not thriving, it is on the road to suffering from overpopulation, if not actually there yet. Also, it is observed that in economically healthy societies, most people do not consider homemaking, child rearing, and so forth to be better things to do.

        – jamesqf
        11 hours ago










      protected by Philipp 20 hours ago



      Thank you for your interest in this question.
      Because it has attracted low-quality or spam answers that had to be removed, posting an answer now requires 10 reputation on this site (the association bonus does not count).



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      7 Answers
      7






      active

      oldest

      votes








      7 Answers
      7






      active

      oldest

      votes









      active

      oldest

      votes






      active

      oldest

      votes









      65














      The obvious answer is that people get older and (presumably, hopefully) retire from the workforce.



      If your country's demographic is otherwise more or less stable, it means that by the time those 300,000 people age up to enter the work force, a similar number of people retire from the work force and hopefully live on their pension plan.






      share|improve this answer



















      • 2





        +1, though we've also got an aging population. Figure 1 shows US population growth was largest ~1950 and 1965, which corresponds to folks between the ages of 55 and 70

        – Punintended
        yesterday






      • 43





        Or more analogously to the "300k births" number, there are also 230k deaths per month. So anything above about 70k new jobs per month is a surplus. (I know this is a vast oversimplification)

        – MooseBoys
        yesterday






      • 1





        See Business Insider that did the "calculus" to arrive at an answer of how many jobs need be created to maintain balanced population/jobs. Their answer 203,000 per month. [ businessinsider.com/… ]

        – BobE
        13 hours ago
















      65














      The obvious answer is that people get older and (presumably, hopefully) retire from the workforce.



      If your country's demographic is otherwise more or less stable, it means that by the time those 300,000 people age up to enter the work force, a similar number of people retire from the work force and hopefully live on their pension plan.






      share|improve this answer



















      • 2





        +1, though we've also got an aging population. Figure 1 shows US population growth was largest ~1950 and 1965, which corresponds to folks between the ages of 55 and 70

        – Punintended
        yesterday






      • 43





        Or more analogously to the "300k births" number, there are also 230k deaths per month. So anything above about 70k new jobs per month is a surplus. (I know this is a vast oversimplification)

        – MooseBoys
        yesterday






      • 1





        See Business Insider that did the "calculus" to arrive at an answer of how many jobs need be created to maintain balanced population/jobs. Their answer 203,000 per month. [ businessinsider.com/… ]

        – BobE
        13 hours ago














      65












      65








      65







      The obvious answer is that people get older and (presumably, hopefully) retire from the workforce.



      If your country's demographic is otherwise more or less stable, it means that by the time those 300,000 people age up to enter the work force, a similar number of people retire from the work force and hopefully live on their pension plan.






      share|improve this answer













      The obvious answer is that people get older and (presumably, hopefully) retire from the workforce.



      If your country's demographic is otherwise more or less stable, it means that by the time those 300,000 people age up to enter the work force, a similar number of people retire from the work force and hopefully live on their pension plan.







      share|improve this answer












      share|improve this answer



      share|improve this answer










      answered yesterday









      ShadurShadur

      573410




      573410








      • 2





        +1, though we've also got an aging population. Figure 1 shows US population growth was largest ~1950 and 1965, which corresponds to folks between the ages of 55 and 70

        – Punintended
        yesterday






      • 43





        Or more analogously to the "300k births" number, there are also 230k deaths per month. So anything above about 70k new jobs per month is a surplus. (I know this is a vast oversimplification)

        – MooseBoys
        yesterday






      • 1





        See Business Insider that did the "calculus" to arrive at an answer of how many jobs need be created to maintain balanced population/jobs. Their answer 203,000 per month. [ businessinsider.com/… ]

        – BobE
        13 hours ago














      • 2





        +1, though we've also got an aging population. Figure 1 shows US population growth was largest ~1950 and 1965, which corresponds to folks between the ages of 55 and 70

        – Punintended
        yesterday






      • 43





        Or more analogously to the "300k births" number, there are also 230k deaths per month. So anything above about 70k new jobs per month is a surplus. (I know this is a vast oversimplification)

        – MooseBoys
        yesterday






      • 1





        See Business Insider that did the "calculus" to arrive at an answer of how many jobs need be created to maintain balanced population/jobs. Their answer 203,000 per month. [ businessinsider.com/… ]

        – BobE
        13 hours ago








      2




      2





      +1, though we've also got an aging population. Figure 1 shows US population growth was largest ~1950 and 1965, which corresponds to folks between the ages of 55 and 70

      – Punintended
      yesterday





      +1, though we've also got an aging population. Figure 1 shows US population growth was largest ~1950 and 1965, which corresponds to folks between the ages of 55 and 70

      – Punintended
      yesterday




      43




      43





      Or more analogously to the "300k births" number, there are also 230k deaths per month. So anything above about 70k new jobs per month is a surplus. (I know this is a vast oversimplification)

      – MooseBoys
      yesterday





      Or more analogously to the "300k births" number, there are also 230k deaths per month. So anything above about 70k new jobs per month is a surplus. (I know this is a vast oversimplification)

      – MooseBoys
      yesterday




      1




      1





      See Business Insider that did the "calculus" to arrive at an answer of how many jobs need be created to maintain balanced population/jobs. Their answer 203,000 per month. [ businessinsider.com/… ]

      – BobE
      13 hours ago





      See Business Insider that did the "calculus" to arrive at an answer of how many jobs need be created to maintain balanced population/jobs. Their answer 203,000 per month. [ businessinsider.com/… ]

      – BobE
      13 hours ago











      21














      In addition to the other answers, it should be noted that jobs don't just exist independent of people. The only reason jobs exist is that people create the need for jobs, so more people means more jobs.






      share|improve this answer










      New contributor




      kloddant is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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      • 3





        A small correction. People create the need for products and services, and that need creates jobs. There are times when society creates jobs merely because jobs are needed, but that is, at best, a temporary fix. Unless the work product is of value, ultimately the job is just a tranfer payment in disguise.

        – Walter Mitty
        19 hours ago
















      21














      In addition to the other answers, it should be noted that jobs don't just exist independent of people. The only reason jobs exist is that people create the need for jobs, so more people means more jobs.






      share|improve this answer










      New contributor




      kloddant is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
      Check out our Code of Conduct.
















      • 3





        A small correction. People create the need for products and services, and that need creates jobs. There are times when society creates jobs merely because jobs are needed, but that is, at best, a temporary fix. Unless the work product is of value, ultimately the job is just a tranfer payment in disguise.

        – Walter Mitty
        19 hours ago














      21












      21








      21







      In addition to the other answers, it should be noted that jobs don't just exist independent of people. The only reason jobs exist is that people create the need for jobs, so more people means more jobs.






      share|improve this answer










      New contributor




      kloddant is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
      Check out our Code of Conduct.










      In addition to the other answers, it should be noted that jobs don't just exist independent of people. The only reason jobs exist is that people create the need for jobs, so more people means more jobs.







      share|improve this answer










      New contributor




      kloddant is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
      Check out our Code of Conduct.









      share|improve this answer



      share|improve this answer








      edited 12 hours ago









      JJJ

      5,89522454




      5,89522454






      New contributor




      kloddant is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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      answered yesterday









      kloddantkloddant

      31313




      31313




      New contributor




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      New contributor





      kloddant is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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      kloddant is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
      Check out our Code of Conduct.








      • 3





        A small correction. People create the need for products and services, and that need creates jobs. There are times when society creates jobs merely because jobs are needed, but that is, at best, a temporary fix. Unless the work product is of value, ultimately the job is just a tranfer payment in disguise.

        – Walter Mitty
        19 hours ago














      • 3





        A small correction. People create the need for products and services, and that need creates jobs. There are times when society creates jobs merely because jobs are needed, but that is, at best, a temporary fix. Unless the work product is of value, ultimately the job is just a tranfer payment in disguise.

        – Walter Mitty
        19 hours ago








      3




      3





      A small correction. People create the need for products and services, and that need creates jobs. There are times when society creates jobs merely because jobs are needed, but that is, at best, a temporary fix. Unless the work product is of value, ultimately the job is just a tranfer payment in disguise.

      – Walter Mitty
      19 hours ago





      A small correction. People create the need for products and services, and that need creates jobs. There are times when society creates jobs merely because jobs are needed, but that is, at best, a temporary fix. Unless the work product is of value, ultimately the job is just a tranfer payment in disguise.

      – Walter Mitty
      19 hours ago











      12














      "300k people entered the labor pool" and "300k+ births a month" are very different things.



      You can get to 300k new people in labor pool, if you have 150k people reaching employment age, and 150k of previously long-term unemployed people (excluded from the labor pool by labor statistics bureau) started looking for a job (because they decided such with low unemployment, they have chance to get the job even if they could not get it before).



      And to get to 150k people reaching employment age you need more that 150k births, 20 years earlier.



      We have no idea how many jobs will be available 20 years from now for people born now. It could be singularity and robots will do all the work. Or climate collapse could start WW3.



      And then there is immigration, legal and illegal.






      share|improve this answer





















      • 1





        thanks for adding numbers: other answers miss that part.

        – aaaaaa
        3 hours ago
















      12














      "300k people entered the labor pool" and "300k+ births a month" are very different things.



      You can get to 300k new people in labor pool, if you have 150k people reaching employment age, and 150k of previously long-term unemployed people (excluded from the labor pool by labor statistics bureau) started looking for a job (because they decided such with low unemployment, they have chance to get the job even if they could not get it before).



      And to get to 150k people reaching employment age you need more that 150k births, 20 years earlier.



      We have no idea how many jobs will be available 20 years from now for people born now. It could be singularity and robots will do all the work. Or climate collapse could start WW3.



      And then there is immigration, legal and illegal.






      share|improve this answer





















      • 1





        thanks for adding numbers: other answers miss that part.

        – aaaaaa
        3 hours ago














      12












      12








      12







      "300k people entered the labor pool" and "300k+ births a month" are very different things.



      You can get to 300k new people in labor pool, if you have 150k people reaching employment age, and 150k of previously long-term unemployed people (excluded from the labor pool by labor statistics bureau) started looking for a job (because they decided such with low unemployment, they have chance to get the job even if they could not get it before).



      And to get to 150k people reaching employment age you need more that 150k births, 20 years earlier.



      We have no idea how many jobs will be available 20 years from now for people born now. It could be singularity and robots will do all the work. Or climate collapse could start WW3.



      And then there is immigration, legal and illegal.






      share|improve this answer















      "300k people entered the labor pool" and "300k+ births a month" are very different things.



      You can get to 300k new people in labor pool, if you have 150k people reaching employment age, and 150k of previously long-term unemployed people (excluded from the labor pool by labor statistics bureau) started looking for a job (because they decided such with low unemployment, they have chance to get the job even if they could not get it before).



      And to get to 150k people reaching employment age you need more that 150k births, 20 years earlier.



      We have no idea how many jobs will be available 20 years from now for people born now. It could be singularity and robots will do all the work. Or climate collapse could start WW3.



      And then there is immigration, legal and illegal.







      share|improve this answer














      share|improve this answer



      share|improve this answer








      edited yesterday

























      answered yesterday









      Peter M.Peter M.

      1,059611




      1,059611








      • 1





        thanks for adding numbers: other answers miss that part.

        – aaaaaa
        3 hours ago














      • 1





        thanks for adding numbers: other answers miss that part.

        – aaaaaa
        3 hours ago








      1




      1





      thanks for adding numbers: other answers miss that part.

      – aaaaaa
      3 hours ago





      thanks for adding numbers: other answers miss that part.

      – aaaaaa
      3 hours ago











      4














      In addition to other answers. (+1 to Kloddant).



      Note newborns will only enter the labor market after 20 years or more. The economy is supposed to grow (even when the population is stable) a lot in that time frame, so by the time anybody born today ends college the new jobs increase ratios is supposed to be a lot higher than today.
      Of course, no one can give us a real number of new jobs created for 2039. But we hope it will be more than 300k.






      share|improve this answer





















      • 2





        yes, but with automation the economy (=GDP) can grow while jobs shrink at the same time.

        – Fizz
        yesterday











      • But the people entering the job market now correspond to births 20ish years ago, and he's assuming the birth rate was roughly comparable then.

        – Barmar
        yesterday











      • @Fizz There are lots of things to consider. Someone talked about immigration, for example, but that is peanuts compared to job migration (when you close a facility in Europe to reopen another in Asia). Analysts try to extrapolate all those graphs and that's why you cannot correlate today birth rate with today jobs increase rate. In fact, if jobs increase rate was as big as birth rate that can mean you really need immigrants and automation badly.

        – jean
        yesterday








      • 1





        That might happen even without automation; South Africa is an example economist.com/special-report/2010/06/03/jobless-growth

        – Fizz
        yesterday











      • Correction: we hope newborns will only enter the labour market after 20 years or more.

        – Sean
        2 hours ago
















      4














      In addition to other answers. (+1 to Kloddant).



      Note newborns will only enter the labor market after 20 years or more. The economy is supposed to grow (even when the population is stable) a lot in that time frame, so by the time anybody born today ends college the new jobs increase ratios is supposed to be a lot higher than today.
      Of course, no one can give us a real number of new jobs created for 2039. But we hope it will be more than 300k.






      share|improve this answer





















      • 2





        yes, but with automation the economy (=GDP) can grow while jobs shrink at the same time.

        – Fizz
        yesterday











      • But the people entering the job market now correspond to births 20ish years ago, and he's assuming the birth rate was roughly comparable then.

        – Barmar
        yesterday











      • @Fizz There are lots of things to consider. Someone talked about immigration, for example, but that is peanuts compared to job migration (when you close a facility in Europe to reopen another in Asia). Analysts try to extrapolate all those graphs and that's why you cannot correlate today birth rate with today jobs increase rate. In fact, if jobs increase rate was as big as birth rate that can mean you really need immigrants and automation badly.

        – jean
        yesterday








      • 1





        That might happen even without automation; South Africa is an example economist.com/special-report/2010/06/03/jobless-growth

        – Fizz
        yesterday











      • Correction: we hope newborns will only enter the labour market after 20 years or more.

        – Sean
        2 hours ago














      4












      4








      4







      In addition to other answers. (+1 to Kloddant).



      Note newborns will only enter the labor market after 20 years or more. The economy is supposed to grow (even when the population is stable) a lot in that time frame, so by the time anybody born today ends college the new jobs increase ratios is supposed to be a lot higher than today.
      Of course, no one can give us a real number of new jobs created for 2039. But we hope it will be more than 300k.






      share|improve this answer















      In addition to other answers. (+1 to Kloddant).



      Note newborns will only enter the labor market after 20 years or more. The economy is supposed to grow (even when the population is stable) a lot in that time frame, so by the time anybody born today ends college the new jobs increase ratios is supposed to be a lot higher than today.
      Of course, no one can give us a real number of new jobs created for 2039. But we hope it will be more than 300k.







      share|improve this answer














      share|improve this answer



      share|improve this answer








      edited yesterday









      yoozer8

      3023517




      3023517










      answered yesterday









      jeanjean

      14927




      14927








      • 2





        yes, but with automation the economy (=GDP) can grow while jobs shrink at the same time.

        – Fizz
        yesterday











      • But the people entering the job market now correspond to births 20ish years ago, and he's assuming the birth rate was roughly comparable then.

        – Barmar
        yesterday











      • @Fizz There are lots of things to consider. Someone talked about immigration, for example, but that is peanuts compared to job migration (when you close a facility in Europe to reopen another in Asia). Analysts try to extrapolate all those graphs and that's why you cannot correlate today birth rate with today jobs increase rate. In fact, if jobs increase rate was as big as birth rate that can mean you really need immigrants and automation badly.

        – jean
        yesterday








      • 1





        That might happen even without automation; South Africa is an example economist.com/special-report/2010/06/03/jobless-growth

        – Fizz
        yesterday











      • Correction: we hope newborns will only enter the labour market after 20 years or more.

        – Sean
        2 hours ago














      • 2





        yes, but with automation the economy (=GDP) can grow while jobs shrink at the same time.

        – Fizz
        yesterday











      • But the people entering the job market now correspond to births 20ish years ago, and he's assuming the birth rate was roughly comparable then.

        – Barmar
        yesterday











      • @Fizz There are lots of things to consider. Someone talked about immigration, for example, but that is peanuts compared to job migration (when you close a facility in Europe to reopen another in Asia). Analysts try to extrapolate all those graphs and that's why you cannot correlate today birth rate with today jobs increase rate. In fact, if jobs increase rate was as big as birth rate that can mean you really need immigrants and automation badly.

        – jean
        yesterday








      • 1





        That might happen even without automation; South Africa is an example economist.com/special-report/2010/06/03/jobless-growth

        – Fizz
        yesterday











      • Correction: we hope newborns will only enter the labour market after 20 years or more.

        – Sean
        2 hours ago








      2




      2





      yes, but with automation the economy (=GDP) can grow while jobs shrink at the same time.

      – Fizz
      yesterday





      yes, but with automation the economy (=GDP) can grow while jobs shrink at the same time.

      – Fizz
      yesterday













      But the people entering the job market now correspond to births 20ish years ago, and he's assuming the birth rate was roughly comparable then.

      – Barmar
      yesterday





      But the people entering the job market now correspond to births 20ish years ago, and he's assuming the birth rate was roughly comparable then.

      – Barmar
      yesterday













      @Fizz There are lots of things to consider. Someone talked about immigration, for example, but that is peanuts compared to job migration (when you close a facility in Europe to reopen another in Asia). Analysts try to extrapolate all those graphs and that's why you cannot correlate today birth rate with today jobs increase rate. In fact, if jobs increase rate was as big as birth rate that can mean you really need immigrants and automation badly.

      – jean
      yesterday







      @Fizz There are lots of things to consider. Someone talked about immigration, for example, but that is peanuts compared to job migration (when you close a facility in Europe to reopen another in Asia). Analysts try to extrapolate all those graphs and that's why you cannot correlate today birth rate with today jobs increase rate. In fact, if jobs increase rate was as big as birth rate that can mean you really need immigrants and automation badly.

      – jean
      yesterday






      1




      1





      That might happen even without automation; South Africa is an example economist.com/special-report/2010/06/03/jobless-growth

      – Fizz
      yesterday





      That might happen even without automation; South Africa is an example economist.com/special-report/2010/06/03/jobless-growth

      – Fizz
      yesterday













      Correction: we hope newborns will only enter the labour market after 20 years or more.

      – Sean
      2 hours ago





      Correction: we hope newborns will only enter the labour market after 20 years or more.

      – Sean
      2 hours ago











      2















      "On average, 205,300 jobs need to be created every month just to keep up with population growth"




      per Business Insider Aug 2016.



      Their article appears to be an analysis of this issue, however I will leave it to the reader to debate the accuracy and/or validity of the conclusion. If the analysis was valid in 2016, I would think that it is equally valid 2.5 years later.






      share|improve this answer




























        2















        "On average, 205,300 jobs need to be created every month just to keep up with population growth"




        per Business Insider Aug 2016.



        Their article appears to be an analysis of this issue, however I will leave it to the reader to debate the accuracy and/or validity of the conclusion. If the analysis was valid in 2016, I would think that it is equally valid 2.5 years later.






        share|improve this answer


























          2












          2








          2








          "On average, 205,300 jobs need to be created every month just to keep up with population growth"




          per Business Insider Aug 2016.



          Their article appears to be an analysis of this issue, however I will leave it to the reader to debate the accuracy and/or validity of the conclusion. If the analysis was valid in 2016, I would think that it is equally valid 2.5 years later.






          share|improve this answer














          "On average, 205,300 jobs need to be created every month just to keep up with population growth"




          per Business Insider Aug 2016.



          Their article appears to be an analysis of this issue, however I will leave it to the reader to debate the accuracy and/or validity of the conclusion. If the analysis was valid in 2016, I would think that it is equally valid 2.5 years later.







          share|improve this answer












          share|improve this answer



          share|improve this answer










          answered yesterday









          BobEBobE

          2,8381830




          2,8381830























              -1














              Quick answer. Money is produced by private and corporate bank loans. With a fixed base money supply (because bond rates have been flat for 40 years now) this means debt can not be repaid because it amounts to more money then there exists. So there things allow this to continue, new loans but this grows the interest leading to the other two. Alternatively the loans can default, or the banks can essentially give money back.



              The give back is why we don't need 100% employment. Most middle class can live off investment and pensions. With enough principle it is trivial matter of funding.



              This is in contrast to prior where you got the give back from a know, standard source, gov bonds. Reliable, riskless, standard insertion of new currency. Today bond rates have been flat and non competitive. With growing world economy private and corporate banks use debt to create new money and give interest back through literally any way you can think of. Insanely well paying do nothing jobs, artificial investment growth, or sometimes not at all, bankruptcy.






              share|improve this answer








              New contributor




              marshal craft is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
              Check out our Code of Conduct.

























                -1














                Quick answer. Money is produced by private and corporate bank loans. With a fixed base money supply (because bond rates have been flat for 40 years now) this means debt can not be repaid because it amounts to more money then there exists. So there things allow this to continue, new loans but this grows the interest leading to the other two. Alternatively the loans can default, or the banks can essentially give money back.



                The give back is why we don't need 100% employment. Most middle class can live off investment and pensions. With enough principle it is trivial matter of funding.



                This is in contrast to prior where you got the give back from a know, standard source, gov bonds. Reliable, riskless, standard insertion of new currency. Today bond rates have been flat and non competitive. With growing world economy private and corporate banks use debt to create new money and give interest back through literally any way you can think of. Insanely well paying do nothing jobs, artificial investment growth, or sometimes not at all, bankruptcy.






                share|improve this answer








                New contributor




                marshal craft is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
                Check out our Code of Conduct.























                  -1












                  -1








                  -1







                  Quick answer. Money is produced by private and corporate bank loans. With a fixed base money supply (because bond rates have been flat for 40 years now) this means debt can not be repaid because it amounts to more money then there exists. So there things allow this to continue, new loans but this grows the interest leading to the other two. Alternatively the loans can default, or the banks can essentially give money back.



                  The give back is why we don't need 100% employment. Most middle class can live off investment and pensions. With enough principle it is trivial matter of funding.



                  This is in contrast to prior where you got the give back from a know, standard source, gov bonds. Reliable, riskless, standard insertion of new currency. Today bond rates have been flat and non competitive. With growing world economy private and corporate banks use debt to create new money and give interest back through literally any way you can think of. Insanely well paying do nothing jobs, artificial investment growth, or sometimes not at all, bankruptcy.






                  share|improve this answer








                  New contributor




                  marshal craft is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
                  Check out our Code of Conduct.










                  Quick answer. Money is produced by private and corporate bank loans. With a fixed base money supply (because bond rates have been flat for 40 years now) this means debt can not be repaid because it amounts to more money then there exists. So there things allow this to continue, new loans but this grows the interest leading to the other two. Alternatively the loans can default, or the banks can essentially give money back.



                  The give back is why we don't need 100% employment. Most middle class can live off investment and pensions. With enough principle it is trivial matter of funding.



                  This is in contrast to prior where you got the give back from a know, standard source, gov bonds. Reliable, riskless, standard insertion of new currency. Today bond rates have been flat and non competitive. With growing world economy private and corporate banks use debt to create new money and give interest back through literally any way you can think of. Insanely well paying do nothing jobs, artificial investment growth, or sometimes not at all, bankruptcy.







                  share|improve this answer








                  New contributor




                  marshal craft is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
                  Check out our Code of Conduct.









                  share|improve this answer



                  share|improve this answer






                  New contributor




                  marshal craft is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
                  Check out our Code of Conduct.









                  answered yesterday









                  marshal craftmarshal craft

                  993




                  993




                  New contributor




                  marshal craft is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
                  Check out our Code of Conduct.





                  New contributor





                  marshal craft is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
                  Check out our Code of Conduct.






                  marshal craft is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
                  Check out our Code of Conduct.























                      -1














                      Other posters noted that you need to subtract the number of people who age out of the labor force from the number of people who reach the adulthood each year. In a thriving society, both numbers are substantially less then the number of births.



                      In a thriving society, a large fraction of the working age population does not work for monetary pay. They have better things to do: Homemaking, raising children well, gardening, volunteer work.



                      If a society manages to have 90 % of its working age men working, and 30 % of its working age women working, and does not have net immigration/emigration of working age adults, then the rate of creating net new jobs should average about 60 % of the rate of net new working age adults.






                      share|improve this answer



















                      • 1





                        A society with an excess of births is not thriving, it is on the road to suffering from overpopulation, if not actually there yet. Also, it is observed that in economically healthy societies, most people do not consider homemaking, child rearing, and so forth to be better things to do.

                        – jamesqf
                        11 hours ago
















                      -1














                      Other posters noted that you need to subtract the number of people who age out of the labor force from the number of people who reach the adulthood each year. In a thriving society, both numbers are substantially less then the number of births.



                      In a thriving society, a large fraction of the working age population does not work for monetary pay. They have better things to do: Homemaking, raising children well, gardening, volunteer work.



                      If a society manages to have 90 % of its working age men working, and 30 % of its working age women working, and does not have net immigration/emigration of working age adults, then the rate of creating net new jobs should average about 60 % of the rate of net new working age adults.






                      share|improve this answer



















                      • 1





                        A society with an excess of births is not thriving, it is on the road to suffering from overpopulation, if not actually there yet. Also, it is observed that in economically healthy societies, most people do not consider homemaking, child rearing, and so forth to be better things to do.

                        – jamesqf
                        11 hours ago














                      -1












                      -1








                      -1







                      Other posters noted that you need to subtract the number of people who age out of the labor force from the number of people who reach the adulthood each year. In a thriving society, both numbers are substantially less then the number of births.



                      In a thriving society, a large fraction of the working age population does not work for monetary pay. They have better things to do: Homemaking, raising children well, gardening, volunteer work.



                      If a society manages to have 90 % of its working age men working, and 30 % of its working age women working, and does not have net immigration/emigration of working age adults, then the rate of creating net new jobs should average about 60 % of the rate of net new working age adults.






                      share|improve this answer













                      Other posters noted that you need to subtract the number of people who age out of the labor force from the number of people who reach the adulthood each year. In a thriving society, both numbers are substantially less then the number of births.



                      In a thriving society, a large fraction of the working age population does not work for monetary pay. They have better things to do: Homemaking, raising children well, gardening, volunteer work.



                      If a society manages to have 90 % of its working age men working, and 30 % of its working age women working, and does not have net immigration/emigration of working age adults, then the rate of creating net new jobs should average about 60 % of the rate of net new working age adults.







                      share|improve this answer












                      share|improve this answer



                      share|improve this answer










                      answered 22 hours ago









                      JasperJasper

                      3,001923




                      3,001923








                      • 1





                        A society with an excess of births is not thriving, it is on the road to suffering from overpopulation, if not actually there yet. Also, it is observed that in economically healthy societies, most people do not consider homemaking, child rearing, and so forth to be better things to do.

                        – jamesqf
                        11 hours ago














                      • 1





                        A society with an excess of births is not thriving, it is on the road to suffering from overpopulation, if not actually there yet. Also, it is observed that in economically healthy societies, most people do not consider homemaking, child rearing, and so forth to be better things to do.

                        – jamesqf
                        11 hours ago








                      1




                      1





                      A society with an excess of births is not thriving, it is on the road to suffering from overpopulation, if not actually there yet. Also, it is observed that in economically healthy societies, most people do not consider homemaking, child rearing, and so forth to be better things to do.

                      – jamesqf
                      11 hours ago





                      A society with an excess of births is not thriving, it is on the road to suffering from overpopulation, if not actually there yet. Also, it is observed that in economically healthy societies, most people do not consider homemaking, child rearing, and so forth to be better things to do.

                      – jamesqf
                      11 hours ago





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