Biased dice probability question












1












$begingroup$


A biased six sided dice is rolled twice. Show that the probability that the two results are the same is at least $frac{1}{6}$.
(Hint: $(p_1 − a)^2 + . . . + (p_6 − a)^2 ≥ 0$ and choose suitable
$p_1, . . . , p_6$, a.)










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  • $begingroup$
    Hint: First try to show that if a coin is flipped twice, the probability that the two results are the same is at least $1/2$. This will help you figure out what to choose as $a$.
    $endgroup$
    – Lorenzo
    2 hours ago
















1












$begingroup$


A biased six sided dice is rolled twice. Show that the probability that the two results are the same is at least $frac{1}{6}$.
(Hint: $(p_1 − a)^2 + . . . + (p_6 − a)^2 ≥ 0$ and choose suitable
$p_1, . . . , p_6$, a.)










share|cite|improve this question









New contributor




mandy is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.







$endgroup$












  • $begingroup$
    Hint: First try to show that if a coin is flipped twice, the probability that the two results are the same is at least $1/2$. This will help you figure out what to choose as $a$.
    $endgroup$
    – Lorenzo
    2 hours ago














1












1








1


2



$begingroup$


A biased six sided dice is rolled twice. Show that the probability that the two results are the same is at least $frac{1}{6}$.
(Hint: $(p_1 − a)^2 + . . . + (p_6 − a)^2 ≥ 0$ and choose suitable
$p_1, . . . , p_6$, a.)










share|cite|improve this question









New contributor




mandy is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.







$endgroup$




A biased six sided dice is rolled twice. Show that the probability that the two results are the same is at least $frac{1}{6}$.
(Hint: $(p_1 − a)^2 + . . . + (p_6 − a)^2 ≥ 0$ and choose suitable
$p_1, . . . , p_6$, a.)







probability






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edited 2 hours ago









mathpadawan

2,019422




2,019422






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asked 2 hours ago









mandymandy

152




152




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  • $begingroup$
    Hint: First try to show that if a coin is flipped twice, the probability that the two results are the same is at least $1/2$. This will help you figure out what to choose as $a$.
    $endgroup$
    – Lorenzo
    2 hours ago


















  • $begingroup$
    Hint: First try to show that if a coin is flipped twice, the probability that the two results are the same is at least $1/2$. This will help you figure out what to choose as $a$.
    $endgroup$
    – Lorenzo
    2 hours ago
















$begingroup$
Hint: First try to show that if a coin is flipped twice, the probability that the two results are the same is at least $1/2$. This will help you figure out what to choose as $a$.
$endgroup$
– Lorenzo
2 hours ago




$begingroup$
Hint: First try to show that if a coin is flipped twice, the probability that the two results are the same is at least $1/2$. This will help you figure out what to choose as $a$.
$endgroup$
– Lorenzo
2 hours ago










3 Answers
3






active

oldest

votes


















6












$begingroup$

Let $p_i$ be the probability of rolling $i$. Then $sum_{i=1}^6 p_i = 1$.



By Cauchy-Schwarz inequality,



$$begin{align*}
left(sum_{i=1}^6 1^2right) left(sum_{i=1}^6 p_i^2right) &ge
left(sum_{i=1}^6 1p_iright)^2\
6left(sum_{i=1}^6 p_i^2right) &ge 1\
sum_{i=1}^6 p_i^2 &ge frac16end{align*}$$



Equality holds when all the $p_i$ are the same, i.e. when the die is unbiased.






share|cite|improve this answer









$endgroup$





















    2












    $begingroup$

    Using the hint: For any $ain mathbb{R}$



    $$ sum (p_i − a)^2 ge 0$$
    $$ sum (a^2 -2ap_i+p_i^2) ge 0$$
    $$ 6 a^2 -2asum p_i + sum p_i^2 ge 0$$
    $$ sum p_i^2 ge -2a(3a-1)$$



    The RHS is a quadratic with roots at $a=0$, $a=1/3$, and maximum at $a_0=1/6$. At that point, the RHS value is $-2 frac 16 (3 frac 16 -1)=1/6$



    Hence $$ sum p_i^2 ge frac16$$



    Of course, the LHS is the probability of having the same result in both rolls.



    For the equality to hold, the first inequality must be an equality, hence $p_i=a=frac16$.






    share|cite|improve this answer











    $endgroup$





















      1












      $begingroup$

      Here’s another way to solve the problem, just for fun. Let $p_i$ be the probability of rolling $i$ when the die is rolled once. Also for simplicity, suppose the faces of the die are numbered $0$ through $5$. This won’t change the probability in question.



      For two-roll sequences, consider the event $E_d$ that the second roll is $d$ bigger than the first roll (modulo $6$). So the sequence $3,5$ would be part of event $E_2$; $3,3$ would be part of $E_0$; and $5,3$ would be part of $E_color{red}4$, because $5+color{red}4equiv3$ (mod $6$).



      The probability $P(E_d)$ is easy to calculate. It’s $sum_{i=0}^5 p_ip_{(i+d)(!!!!mod!!6)}$, which is the dot product of the vector $vec{p}=langle p_0,p_1,p_2,p_3,p_4,p_5rangle$ and a vector $vec{p_d}$ equal in length to $vec{p}$ having the same coordinates as $vec{p}$ but cyclically permuted. Also, when the die is rolled twice, exactly one of the events $E_d$ for $0le dle5$ occurs, so $sum_{d=0}^5P(E_d)=1$.



      Then $P(E_d)=vec vcdotvec v_d={|vec v|^2overcostheta}$, where $theta$ is the angle between $vec v$ and $vec v_d$. The die is biased, so $vec v parallel vec v_d$ only when $d=0$, and $P(E_d)$ has a unique maximum when $d=0$, and $P(E_0)$ is the probability of the die showing the same number on both throws.



      The unique maximum value among $6$ numbers whose sum is $1$ must be greater than $1over 6$.






      share|cite|improve this answer









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        3 Answers
        3






        active

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        3 Answers
        3






        active

        oldest

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        active

        oldest

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        active

        oldest

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        6












        $begingroup$

        Let $p_i$ be the probability of rolling $i$. Then $sum_{i=1}^6 p_i = 1$.



        By Cauchy-Schwarz inequality,



        $$begin{align*}
        left(sum_{i=1}^6 1^2right) left(sum_{i=1}^6 p_i^2right) &ge
        left(sum_{i=1}^6 1p_iright)^2\
        6left(sum_{i=1}^6 p_i^2right) &ge 1\
        sum_{i=1}^6 p_i^2 &ge frac16end{align*}$$



        Equality holds when all the $p_i$ are the same, i.e. when the die is unbiased.






        share|cite|improve this answer









        $endgroup$


















          6












          $begingroup$

          Let $p_i$ be the probability of rolling $i$. Then $sum_{i=1}^6 p_i = 1$.



          By Cauchy-Schwarz inequality,



          $$begin{align*}
          left(sum_{i=1}^6 1^2right) left(sum_{i=1}^6 p_i^2right) &ge
          left(sum_{i=1}^6 1p_iright)^2\
          6left(sum_{i=1}^6 p_i^2right) &ge 1\
          sum_{i=1}^6 p_i^2 &ge frac16end{align*}$$



          Equality holds when all the $p_i$ are the same, i.e. when the die is unbiased.






          share|cite|improve this answer









          $endgroup$
















            6












            6








            6





            $begingroup$

            Let $p_i$ be the probability of rolling $i$. Then $sum_{i=1}^6 p_i = 1$.



            By Cauchy-Schwarz inequality,



            $$begin{align*}
            left(sum_{i=1}^6 1^2right) left(sum_{i=1}^6 p_i^2right) &ge
            left(sum_{i=1}^6 1p_iright)^2\
            6left(sum_{i=1}^6 p_i^2right) &ge 1\
            sum_{i=1}^6 p_i^2 &ge frac16end{align*}$$



            Equality holds when all the $p_i$ are the same, i.e. when the die is unbiased.






            share|cite|improve this answer









            $endgroup$



            Let $p_i$ be the probability of rolling $i$. Then $sum_{i=1}^6 p_i = 1$.



            By Cauchy-Schwarz inequality,



            $$begin{align*}
            left(sum_{i=1}^6 1^2right) left(sum_{i=1}^6 p_i^2right) &ge
            left(sum_{i=1}^6 1p_iright)^2\
            6left(sum_{i=1}^6 p_i^2right) &ge 1\
            sum_{i=1}^6 p_i^2 &ge frac16end{align*}$$



            Equality holds when all the $p_i$ are the same, i.e. when the die is unbiased.







            share|cite|improve this answer












            share|cite|improve this answer



            share|cite|improve this answer










            answered 2 hours ago









            peterwhypeterwhy

            12.3k21229




            12.3k21229























                2












                $begingroup$

                Using the hint: For any $ain mathbb{R}$



                $$ sum (p_i − a)^2 ge 0$$
                $$ sum (a^2 -2ap_i+p_i^2) ge 0$$
                $$ 6 a^2 -2asum p_i + sum p_i^2 ge 0$$
                $$ sum p_i^2 ge -2a(3a-1)$$



                The RHS is a quadratic with roots at $a=0$, $a=1/3$, and maximum at $a_0=1/6$. At that point, the RHS value is $-2 frac 16 (3 frac 16 -1)=1/6$



                Hence $$ sum p_i^2 ge frac16$$



                Of course, the LHS is the probability of having the same result in both rolls.



                For the equality to hold, the first inequality must be an equality, hence $p_i=a=frac16$.






                share|cite|improve this answer











                $endgroup$


















                  2












                  $begingroup$

                  Using the hint: For any $ain mathbb{R}$



                  $$ sum (p_i − a)^2 ge 0$$
                  $$ sum (a^2 -2ap_i+p_i^2) ge 0$$
                  $$ 6 a^2 -2asum p_i + sum p_i^2 ge 0$$
                  $$ sum p_i^2 ge -2a(3a-1)$$



                  The RHS is a quadratic with roots at $a=0$, $a=1/3$, and maximum at $a_0=1/6$. At that point, the RHS value is $-2 frac 16 (3 frac 16 -1)=1/6$



                  Hence $$ sum p_i^2 ge frac16$$



                  Of course, the LHS is the probability of having the same result in both rolls.



                  For the equality to hold, the first inequality must be an equality, hence $p_i=a=frac16$.






                  share|cite|improve this answer











                  $endgroup$
















                    2












                    2








                    2





                    $begingroup$

                    Using the hint: For any $ain mathbb{R}$



                    $$ sum (p_i − a)^2 ge 0$$
                    $$ sum (a^2 -2ap_i+p_i^2) ge 0$$
                    $$ 6 a^2 -2asum p_i + sum p_i^2 ge 0$$
                    $$ sum p_i^2 ge -2a(3a-1)$$



                    The RHS is a quadratic with roots at $a=0$, $a=1/3$, and maximum at $a_0=1/6$. At that point, the RHS value is $-2 frac 16 (3 frac 16 -1)=1/6$



                    Hence $$ sum p_i^2 ge frac16$$



                    Of course, the LHS is the probability of having the same result in both rolls.



                    For the equality to hold, the first inequality must be an equality, hence $p_i=a=frac16$.






                    share|cite|improve this answer











                    $endgroup$



                    Using the hint: For any $ain mathbb{R}$



                    $$ sum (p_i − a)^2 ge 0$$
                    $$ sum (a^2 -2ap_i+p_i^2) ge 0$$
                    $$ 6 a^2 -2asum p_i + sum p_i^2 ge 0$$
                    $$ sum p_i^2 ge -2a(3a-1)$$



                    The RHS is a quadratic with roots at $a=0$, $a=1/3$, and maximum at $a_0=1/6$. At that point, the RHS value is $-2 frac 16 (3 frac 16 -1)=1/6$



                    Hence $$ sum p_i^2 ge frac16$$



                    Of course, the LHS is the probability of having the same result in both rolls.



                    For the equality to hold, the first inequality must be an equality, hence $p_i=a=frac16$.







                    share|cite|improve this answer














                    share|cite|improve this answer



                    share|cite|improve this answer








                    edited 46 mins ago

























                    answered 53 mins ago









                    leonbloyleonbloy

                    42.4k647108




                    42.4k647108























                        1












                        $begingroup$

                        Here’s another way to solve the problem, just for fun. Let $p_i$ be the probability of rolling $i$ when the die is rolled once. Also for simplicity, suppose the faces of the die are numbered $0$ through $5$. This won’t change the probability in question.



                        For two-roll sequences, consider the event $E_d$ that the second roll is $d$ bigger than the first roll (modulo $6$). So the sequence $3,5$ would be part of event $E_2$; $3,3$ would be part of $E_0$; and $5,3$ would be part of $E_color{red}4$, because $5+color{red}4equiv3$ (mod $6$).



                        The probability $P(E_d)$ is easy to calculate. It’s $sum_{i=0}^5 p_ip_{(i+d)(!!!!mod!!6)}$, which is the dot product of the vector $vec{p}=langle p_0,p_1,p_2,p_3,p_4,p_5rangle$ and a vector $vec{p_d}$ equal in length to $vec{p}$ having the same coordinates as $vec{p}$ but cyclically permuted. Also, when the die is rolled twice, exactly one of the events $E_d$ for $0le dle5$ occurs, so $sum_{d=0}^5P(E_d)=1$.



                        Then $P(E_d)=vec vcdotvec v_d={|vec v|^2overcostheta}$, where $theta$ is the angle between $vec v$ and $vec v_d$. The die is biased, so $vec v parallel vec v_d$ only when $d=0$, and $P(E_d)$ has a unique maximum when $d=0$, and $P(E_0)$ is the probability of the die showing the same number on both throws.



                        The unique maximum value among $6$ numbers whose sum is $1$ must be greater than $1over 6$.






                        share|cite|improve this answer









                        $endgroup$


















                          1












                          $begingroup$

                          Here’s another way to solve the problem, just for fun. Let $p_i$ be the probability of rolling $i$ when the die is rolled once. Also for simplicity, suppose the faces of the die are numbered $0$ through $5$. This won’t change the probability in question.



                          For two-roll sequences, consider the event $E_d$ that the second roll is $d$ bigger than the first roll (modulo $6$). So the sequence $3,5$ would be part of event $E_2$; $3,3$ would be part of $E_0$; and $5,3$ would be part of $E_color{red}4$, because $5+color{red}4equiv3$ (mod $6$).



                          The probability $P(E_d)$ is easy to calculate. It’s $sum_{i=0}^5 p_ip_{(i+d)(!!!!mod!!6)}$, which is the dot product of the vector $vec{p}=langle p_0,p_1,p_2,p_3,p_4,p_5rangle$ and a vector $vec{p_d}$ equal in length to $vec{p}$ having the same coordinates as $vec{p}$ but cyclically permuted. Also, when the die is rolled twice, exactly one of the events $E_d$ for $0le dle5$ occurs, so $sum_{d=0}^5P(E_d)=1$.



                          Then $P(E_d)=vec vcdotvec v_d={|vec v|^2overcostheta}$, where $theta$ is the angle between $vec v$ and $vec v_d$. The die is biased, so $vec v parallel vec v_d$ only when $d=0$, and $P(E_d)$ has a unique maximum when $d=0$, and $P(E_0)$ is the probability of the die showing the same number on both throws.



                          The unique maximum value among $6$ numbers whose sum is $1$ must be greater than $1over 6$.






                          share|cite|improve this answer









                          $endgroup$
















                            1












                            1








                            1





                            $begingroup$

                            Here’s another way to solve the problem, just for fun. Let $p_i$ be the probability of rolling $i$ when the die is rolled once. Also for simplicity, suppose the faces of the die are numbered $0$ through $5$. This won’t change the probability in question.



                            For two-roll sequences, consider the event $E_d$ that the second roll is $d$ bigger than the first roll (modulo $6$). So the sequence $3,5$ would be part of event $E_2$; $3,3$ would be part of $E_0$; and $5,3$ would be part of $E_color{red}4$, because $5+color{red}4equiv3$ (mod $6$).



                            The probability $P(E_d)$ is easy to calculate. It’s $sum_{i=0}^5 p_ip_{(i+d)(!!!!mod!!6)}$, which is the dot product of the vector $vec{p}=langle p_0,p_1,p_2,p_3,p_4,p_5rangle$ and a vector $vec{p_d}$ equal in length to $vec{p}$ having the same coordinates as $vec{p}$ but cyclically permuted. Also, when the die is rolled twice, exactly one of the events $E_d$ for $0le dle5$ occurs, so $sum_{d=0}^5P(E_d)=1$.



                            Then $P(E_d)=vec vcdotvec v_d={|vec v|^2overcostheta}$, where $theta$ is the angle between $vec v$ and $vec v_d$. The die is biased, so $vec v parallel vec v_d$ only when $d=0$, and $P(E_d)$ has a unique maximum when $d=0$, and $P(E_0)$ is the probability of the die showing the same number on both throws.



                            The unique maximum value among $6$ numbers whose sum is $1$ must be greater than $1over 6$.






                            share|cite|improve this answer









                            $endgroup$



                            Here’s another way to solve the problem, just for fun. Let $p_i$ be the probability of rolling $i$ when the die is rolled once. Also for simplicity, suppose the faces of the die are numbered $0$ through $5$. This won’t change the probability in question.



                            For two-roll sequences, consider the event $E_d$ that the second roll is $d$ bigger than the first roll (modulo $6$). So the sequence $3,5$ would be part of event $E_2$; $3,3$ would be part of $E_0$; and $5,3$ would be part of $E_color{red}4$, because $5+color{red}4equiv3$ (mod $6$).



                            The probability $P(E_d)$ is easy to calculate. It’s $sum_{i=0}^5 p_ip_{(i+d)(!!!!mod!!6)}$, which is the dot product of the vector $vec{p}=langle p_0,p_1,p_2,p_3,p_4,p_5rangle$ and a vector $vec{p_d}$ equal in length to $vec{p}$ having the same coordinates as $vec{p}$ but cyclically permuted. Also, when the die is rolled twice, exactly one of the events $E_d$ for $0le dle5$ occurs, so $sum_{d=0}^5P(E_d)=1$.



                            Then $P(E_d)=vec vcdotvec v_d={|vec v|^2overcostheta}$, where $theta$ is the angle between $vec v$ and $vec v_d$. The die is biased, so $vec v parallel vec v_d$ only when $d=0$, and $P(E_d)$ has a unique maximum when $d=0$, and $P(E_0)$ is the probability of the die showing the same number on both throws.



                            The unique maximum value among $6$ numbers whose sum is $1$ must be greater than $1over 6$.







                            share|cite|improve this answer












                            share|cite|improve this answer



                            share|cite|improve this answer










                            answered 55 mins ago









                            Steve KassSteve Kass

                            11.4k11530




                            11.4k11530






















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